Predicting The Future of Charts

Trying to predict the future is difficult depending on what you are trying to predict.
There are things which only experts in that field can predict with accuracy. There are people in the know – the insiders, who can predict what’s going to happen because they are privy to information which is not available to others.
Of course, there are a few certainties in life. For example it’s certain that in future you will become older.
A few near certainties. Example a particular tree will grow taller after a certain time.
But there are some other predictions which are tricky. The extent of development in technology and how our lives will be affected by it is one example which comes to my mind readily.
For quite some time now I have been preparing a paper on ‘Navigation Charts of the Future’. The future here is mostly technology related.
For last so many decades the appearance of a chart has remained almost unchanged. Of course its content was regularly being refurbished based on the new data that was being collected. Ironically, technical advances in this field were being used so as to ensure that the collected data was displayed in the same old fashion as it had been for so long. To give to the mariners the image of a chart they had got used to.
Old tars don’t like to change. They cling to their old-fashioned views and guard all attempts to change with time. No wonder the age-old sea customs, ceremonies and other quirks continue to remain for centuries.
And so, the paper chart which the old chart-makers had foisted on us centuries back remains with us even today.
Ten years from now – will this paper chart continue to remain? Here I am willing to stick my neck out and confidently say – No!
After all the IMO has already announced the ECDIS to be made mandatory on SOLAS ships. Starting from 2012 the implementation will commence and will cover all types of ships by 2018. It will finally push the paper chart into oblivion. To become an artifact displayed in the maritime museum as something which lasted almost forever.
But why is it taking so long to replace the paper charts? Five to ten years from today in this fast changing world is almost a generation away.
It is because the authorities have twisted the regulations in such a way that the replacement of paper charts can be only the official Electronic Navigation Charts ENCs in the S-57 format. ENCs are not favoured by most ship-operators for reasons such as faulty design and high cost.
Regulations insist that ENCs must be issued under the authority of a government. Which government?
Sovereign nations that have been vested with the responsibility of charting their own waters. There are around hundred odd nations in the world which fall in this category. Most of them are well… governments. Not competitive. Not sensitive to the end-user. And not commercially inclined. They have their advantages though. The purity of data collections is not compromised due to commercial compulsions. But a government does not like to change along with technology.
Trying to predict what will happen to the charts of commercial shipping is easy because they come under the IMO-SOLAS regime. The difficult part is trying to predict the future of non-SOLAS class vessels. They are the ones which are driven purely by market forces. The growth of technology here is about to explode.
Here I will quote the futurist Ray Kurzweil. In his book ‘The Singularity is Near’ he mentions that the pace of change of our human created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding at an exponential pace. Exponential pace is deceptive. It starts out almost imperceptibly and then explodes with unexpected fury.
One of the startling predictions that Ray has made is that due to advances in nanotechnology we will soon be able to produce solar panels which will give us substantial amount of energy from the sun itself.
Imagine what will happen to the portable charting systems. Its size and weight will reduce drastically. Hence the power required to run these systems will reduce. On the other hand the computing power will progressively increase. In the next five years yachters will most likely carry an e-chart folded in the pocket; run on powerful portable solar cells. Satellite positions will be available on the mobile. They will have millimetric accuracy when they are in the range of mobile towers equipped with GPS sensors. Once on board the yachter will proceed to unfold the e-chart and tack it onto a convenient bulkhead. Wireless interfaces with the mobile and with other sensors like AIS and ARPA fitted in the vessel will provide all necessary data.
Voila! A full-fledged charting system is now available at his/hers disposal.